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Methodology

FortHelper does not raise your chance of finding any treasure. All it does is work out, from the rates Epic Games publishes, what probability goes with a given number of chests.

The formula

The chance of finding a treasure at least once after opening n chests is:

P = 1 − (1 − p)n

  • p is the probability per chest. If Epic publishes “1 in 137,500”, p = 1 ÷ 137,500.
  • n is the number of chests opened.

During Treasure Hours the per-chest probability is multiplied: with a ×1.5 boost, p = 1.5 ÷ 137,500, which is 1 in 91,667.

What we assume

Every chest is an independent roll with the same probability. That is how Epic describes its rates: a constant chance “every time you open a chest in a normal match”, which does not vary through the day except during Treasure Hours. Epic mentions no system that guarantees a treasure after a number of chests, so we do not model one.

Two consequences are worth keeping in mind:

  • A dry streak does not improve the next chest. Your 10,001st chest has the same odds as your first.
  • Opening as many chests as the rate suggests guarantees nothing. With 137,500 chests, the chance of having found Pirate Shop Access is about 63%, not 100%.

Other figures we show

  • Average chests until the first find: 1 ÷ p. It is an average: half of the players who find it will do so well before that.
  • Chests to reach 50%: the smallest n for which P reaches 0.5.
  • Expected finds: n × p. Shown only for Gizmos, the one treasure that can be obtained more than once.

What is left out

We only use rates published by Epic. Anything Epic has not confirmed is left out:

  • Whether vaults or rare chests have a different rate.
  • Whether a find is shared with the rest of the squad.
  • Whether chests that refill during a match count the same as new ones.

When a piece of data is unconfirmed, we label it “Unconfirmed” and do not use it.

Schedules

Treasure Hours times are entered by hand from Epic’s posts and converted to your time zone in your own browser. FortHelper does not infer future schedules from past ones: if Epic has not published a session’s times, it is shown as “expected”, with no time.

Rounding

Probabilities below 1% are shown with two significant digits (for example, 0.073%) so they do not round to zero. We never show 0% or 100% unless the real value is exactly that.

Chests per minute and other estimates

The chests-per-minute pace in match mode comes only from what you log: chests recorded between the moment you press “Start match” and the moment you end it.